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ЕВРОПЕЙСКАЯ КОНТАКТНАЯ ЗОНА: 2000 N/A N/A
ЕВРОПЕЙСКАЯ КОНТАКТНАЯ ЗОНА: 2000
EUROPEAN CONTACT ZONE: 2000
Санкт-Петербург - 2000
THE POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY OF EUROPEAN MINORITIES:
PAST AND FUTUREThe collapse of communist regimes in East-Central Europe, the disintegration of Soviet Union and of Czechoslovakia and the war in former Yugoslavia showed that even the most dramatic geopolitical shifts can happen. Even before 1991, Europe was the continent with the youngest political boundaries and, therefore, an elevated geopolitical "seismicity" (Foucher, 1991). Numerous changes of political boundaries and the creation of new states only partly solved or softened ethnic problems. It is well known that partitions and the redrawing of political borders often only create new problems, aggravate and perpetuate ethnic conflicts (Waterman, 1984). The purpose of this paper is two-fold: first, using the historical retrospecvtive of the 20th century and hypothetical scenarios of the future, we would like to prove that the unlimited right of peoples to self-determination and the concept of the nation-state are not a mean to reduce ethnic tensions. Second, we would like to try to define the most dangerous ethno-political boundaries in Europe along which new geopolitical shifts can occur, in estimating quantitatively the geopolitical, the economic, and the cultural potential of the conflicts in all European areas of ethnic minorities, as well as the level of their political mobilization. As far as we know, it is the first attempt of this kind and, despite any shortcomings of our method, it can be useful for further studies.
The definition of "minority" depends greatly on the definition of nation, state and, indeed, of majority. This paper will apply the definition



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